TVN 2.08% 4.7¢ tivan limited

sp prediction, page-12

  1. 449 Posts.
    I'm just looking at the math on this.


    If we look at the worst-case figures:

  2. Resouce = 50m tonnes

  3. Cost of extraction = $20/tonne

  4. Freight = $14/tonne

  5. Price at Chinese border = $60/tonne



  6. Now crunch some figures:

    Estimated profit per tonne = 60-20-14 = $26/tonne
    Estimated profit for resource = 26 x 50m = $1.3 billion

    With current number of shares and options at 582m (ie. fully diluted) this works out to be over $2 per share.

    Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying this is the SP valuation. That would depend on how quickly the coal can be extracted and sold - if we knew that we could then approximate the annual profit from which we could obtain a price per share using a suitable P/E ratio.

    The point is that this minnow with a MC of under $10m is staring at a resource worth $1.3bn (after expenses). No wonder the share price didn't pull back much yesterday and the close was strong - the big boys are doing the sums!

 
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