I'm just looking at the math on this.
If we look at the worst-case figures:- Resouce = 50m tonnes
- Cost of extraction = $20/tonne
- Freight = $14/tonne
- Price at Chinese border = $60/tonne
Now crunch some figures:
Estimated profit per tonne = 60-20-14 = $26/tonne
Estimated profit for resource = 26 x 50m = $1.3 billion
With current number of shares and options at 582m (ie. fully diluted) this works out to be over $2 per share.
Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying this is the SP valuation. That would depend on how quickly the coal can be extracted and sold - if we knew that we could then approximate the annual profit from which we could obtain a price per share using a suitable P/E ratio.
The point is that this minnow with a MC of under $10m is staring at a resource worth $1.3bn (after expenses). No wonder the share price didn't pull back much yesterday and the close was strong - the big boys are doing the sums!
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