I agree with you, building the plant somewhere else would NOT be the end of the world, just cause a big plunge and by no means a reason to be relaxed for somebody who is heavily invested here.
A LAMP is not a LEGO-house. The consequences of LAMP being canceled would be huge imo and besides a delay of aprox. 3-4 years (that is how long it usually takes from finding a location to ending up with all permissions ready to go) there would significant question arising:
- what about the contracts? - has LYC thought about an insurance? - what is the basis of new cost calculations? - how would big investors act? - at what level would an additional funding take place? etc.
The worst thing for Lynas of course would be that a delay of 3-4 years would wipe out the #1 argument that has indeed spoken for LYC: Lynas would have no time advantage over ALK, LYC, GWM. Molycorp would for quite a long time be the only big player outside China.
BTW: being short with a small stake I feel VERY relaxed indeed.
regards Julia
LYC Price at posting:
$1.92 Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
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