what's your timeframe for an obj breakthrough?, page-17

Abdm,

OBJ extending the options for one year could be interpreted other ways. I think it's clutching at straws to interpret as proof that a deal will happen this year.

So you think the deal will be tomorrow! What if OBJ know it will be 5 years? That's okay by you? Really?

You reckon it will be with Johnson & Johnson - interesting. They seem to be direct competitors to GSK. There again, GSK is for oral care exclusively. J&J might be for other products.

GSK can up their ante in response to Colgate's aggressive push into emerging markets by normal means - marketing and establishing bases. They don't need OBJ technology to do that.

"don't see why obj should take the blame if I haven't conducted thorough research"

But that's my point - you can't research OBJ sufficiently unless you are an industrial spy! Just saying "biotechs are like that" is not true, e.g. there are product pipeline charts in most biotech presentations. (Not saying OBJ should do that exactly.)

"I certainly don't want them to start announcing fluff in order to prop the sp up and attract the d/t's."

Luckily, that's not what I was suggesting.

rjs99 got burnt because he didn't follow the trend properly. As soon as OBJ turned down, he should have exited, unless he thought a deal was imminent. As far as OBJ is concerned the main trend is secrecy - so expect secrecy to continue. Even if a deal is made, they will keep a lot of it secret, so the sp will never reflect the value of the company. The sp will be continually playing catchup.

Diversification works for people who don't want to do too much research. Diversification works for spec stocks. Diversification works when dealing with secretive companies. Furthermore, there are always risks, and often they are unknown and unknowable. Therefore, diversify. People who succeed without some form of diversification are lucky, not wise. I bet Warren Buffett diversified. He was also lucky.

I agree with this: "The time to get interested is when no one else is."

And this: "HC is a breeding ground for the herd mentality..." But I have learnt a lot from HC. In addition to learning from informed commentators such as OBJers, I've seen people on other threads fighting to prop up their beliefs in a company that is heading south. They will even put people who are warning them on "ignore"!