Peter Strachan in his June 15th report (refer http://www.stockanalysis.com.au/samples/sample2.pdf) states that the base case estimate for SD would see an assessed value of 78 cps for ADX. If they strike the motherload (530 Bcf of gas plus 310 mmbbls of liquids) a share price of $4.97 could result.
Importantly he also mentions that despite nice looking seismic data with DHI signatures and coincident geochemical anomalism over the prospect, all stocks represent highly speculative plays and subscribers should only play with money they can afford to lose.
DYOR
"Energy, XState & Verus to Drill Sidi Dhaher
Following a political and social revolution which ousted the country's long time dictator, conditions on the ground in Tunisia appear to have improved. Elections are now set for October 2011. Drilling operations, which were originally scheduled for January 2011, now appear to be heading for a July drilling slot. The company has been able to negotiate for appropriate road transport safety and security during drilling operations at the Sidi Dhaher prospect.
The prospect has a range of possible target size. There are several separate target zones, each with potential for commercial gas and/or oil. A mid-range target of 175 Bcf of gas plus 44 mmbbls of oil is estimated, but if oil is not present, the prospect could be 150 Bcf plus 4 mmbbls of associated condensate in what can be called the gas case. If all goes very well and the zones max out with hydrocarbons, the prospect could be good for 530 Bcf of gas plus 310 mmbbls of liquids.
The gas case would certainly underpin the current market prices for partners ADX, XST and VIL, while the base case estimate would see assessed values of 78 cps, 67 cps and 5 cps for ADX, XST and VIL respectively. Despite nice looking seismic data with DHI signatures and coincident geochemical anomalism over the prospect, all stocks represent highly speculative plays and subscribers should only play with money they can afford to lose."
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