A very simple rule of thumb which I typically use when evaluating timeframes (my background is large construction projects) is that a best case scenario is for a company to spend an average of $1M day on construction activities. Then add additional time for feasibility studies, engineering (50-100% of the construction timeframe)
Therefore applying this to other projects results in the following:
* Arafura - BFS complete end of 2012 - Allow 6 months decision to mine, contracting, financing etc (ambitious but doable if they get their ducks lined up - June 2013 - ~$1B costs - Lets assume 80% of these are direct construction. Therefore 800 days construction - 2 years Therefore assume min 1yr engineering - June 2014 - 2 years construction and you get to the mid-2016 before commissioning and operation, assuming everything goes well and you don't have any delays. To me 2017 would be more likely.
* Alkane - BFS complete end of 2011 (being conservative from their recent announcements) - Allow 6 months financing etc - June 2012 - ~$500M costs (until they confirm throughput this is just a guess). Assuming $400M relate to construction or 1 1/2 years. I year engineering - June 2013 - 1 1/2 years construction - end 2014
Chihawk can update on Moly, but assuming assuming a $600M capital spend they are still looking at about 2 years construction, when they have finished their engineering to an acceptable level, and who knows when this is.
LYC Price at posting:
$1.87 Sentiment: LT Buy Disclosure: Held
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