I have tried to find a comparison for vaulation. Right or Wrong Ill put it up for comment.
ABZ: 71cps (26 week high = 89cps or another +25%) 100mil shares on issue (55 mil on escrow until Dec 2011) 10mil options MC: $70mil+ Cash: $7mil Resource JORC: 60mt Bauxite Targetting: 200 to 300mt Refinery: At 150mt Status: Emerging - Valued Inground Bauxite
ORD: 9.5cps 470mil shares MC: $45mil Cash: 3mil $ + 3mil$ to come from JV CO + 10mil Debt Equity Targetting: 300mt+ Resource: 130mt Refinery: At 200mt Status: Advanced Emerging - Valued Inground Bauxite
Assuming we get our 300mt target in next update, this will be 5 x the resource of ABZ.
71 cps x 5 = $3.55
$3.55 / 4.7 (our shares on issue) = 75.5
75.5 x 30% (our interest in asset?) = 22.5cps
Assumptions: 1.Given our production and shipping costs would be estimated a lot lower than due to Laos to China, Vs Aust to China. 2.Given the advanced nature of our ability to secure funding for a refinery with 30% of $600 mil refinery, with 30% funding by SARCO IPO, and 70% through Project Debt Financing. ($88,200,000k = $26,460,000 at 30% = $0.055cps) 3. As completion nears, I would expect increase to value of SARCO Shares to appreciate. 3. Given our relatively short time frame to complete a refinery once all signed off. 4. Given Value of by productions 5. Alumina Valued higher than Bauxite after Refinery built. 6. Ongoing Resource upgrades whilst refinery being built.
Assumption Value = 10cps
Time discount 10%
My Guesstimate = 29.25cps So up more than 300% from where we are now.
NOT INCLUDED: 1. Suple Jack and WW (Gold)- Waiting on results 2. Copper Flats (Copper) 3. 5 to 10% of Caledon (upon GRAM Aquisition of CCD, 26 August 2011) 4. Value of future JV Co new aquisitions as they get them (including note 2- Copper Flats)
If 500mt target attained (total reasonable resource potential 1.5bt to 2.5bt)
71 cps x 8.33 = $5.91
$5.91 / 4.7 (our shares on issue) = $1.25cps
$1.25 x 30% (our interest in asset) = 37.7cps
Assumption Value = 10cps
Time discount 10%
My Guesstimate = 42.75cps
VAN Price at posting:
9.3¢ Sentiment: LT Buy Disclosure: Held