defensive takeover strategies, page-8

Hi Ray,

No one had any money then as it was the GFC


Remember before that in the Apogee of the Great Boom 12/11/07 the BHP-RIO takeover proposition :

"The share exchange ratio implies a premium of approximately 28 per cent to the combined weighted average market capitalisations of Rio Tinto Ltd and Rio Tinto Plc over the month ended 31 October 2007... based on volume weighted average BHP Billiton share prices over the same period"

28%

I previously gave you recent history back more than a year of takeover pemiums and they are all consistent with my view that a predator for ESG could mount a credible bid at 1MthVWAP+40%

I went to all that trouble to provie you some evidence not just BullAirs

You know when you are running a project that you make an Estimate then compare it with the Actuals. There will always be some variance. We will see what the Variance is for our Estimate of Premium IF we are lucky enough to get an Actual Bid and even better if the Contested Auction materialises.

If we get a bid at 85cps and you bought back in 2001 at 20cps then you could claim that you got an IPO premium on shares you left in the bottom drawer and forgot about for 10yrs, of 325% . That sounds very good.

But reality is that Takeovers always refer to recent trading , as they should because that is the most recent market valuation, and the 1mthVWAP is very often used as a benchmark.


That is not my fault.


Cheers