Per my back of envelope calculations, I think the value for Siana alone stands somewhere between 24cents and 48cents (depending on your assumptions, of which I have made many in the attached table).
These include:
1/. average gold price between US$1,450 - US$1,000 per oz over next 10 years;
2/. average silver price between US$34 - US$25 per oz over next 10 years;
3/. operational cost per oz increases 5% year-on-year
4/. no debt or interest expense
5/. no other significant capital expense
6/. SG&A expenses at 10% of revenue
7/. tax at 30% of profit
8/. PE ratio between 13 (average gold sector) and 26 (Newcrest)
9/. EPS over 10 years = 1.9cps average
10/. No. shares remains at 1.284billion
Naturally, I would expect many differences between my assumptions and reality. However, my aim is simply to validate whether RED is fairly valued at current levels or not. I believe the answer is it is not - so I've got my bid in and will hope for a September quarter pour and re-rating.
Good luck to all.
Yr 1 Yr 2 Yr 3 Yr 4 Yr 5 Yr 6 Yr 7 Yr 8 Yr 9 Yr 10 Gold 45,700 72,200 90,300 127,100 85,600 85,600 85,600 85,600 85,600 85,600 848,900 Cost/oz (US$) 400 420 441 463 486 511 536 563 591 621 652 Silver 245,800 191,900 120,000 134,600 125,050 125,050 125,050 125,050 125,050 125,050 1,442,600 Cost/oz (US$) - - - - - - - - - - [incl. In Gold cost] 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 TOTAL GOLD Oz 11,425 52,325 76,725 99,500 116,725 85,600 85,600 85,600 85,600 85,600 64,200 848,900 SILVER Oz 61,450 232,325 173,925 123,650 132,213 125,050 125,050 125,050 125,050 125,050 93,788 1,442,600 AVE. GOLD PRICE 1,450 1,400 1,350 1,250 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 AVE. SILVER PRICE 34 32 30 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 TOTAL Revenues 18,655,550 80,689,400 108,796,500 127,466,250 120,030,313 88,726,250 88,726,250 88,726,250 88,726,250 88,726,250 66,544,688 965,813,950 Operating Costs 4,570,000 21,976,500 33,835,725 46,073,475 56,751,987 43,699,881 45,884,875 48,179,118 50,588,074 53,117,478 41,830,014 446,507,127 Operating Profit 14,085,550 58,712,900 74,960,775 81,392,775 63,278,326 45,026,369 42,841,375 40,547,132 38,138,176 35,608,772 24,714,673 519,306,823 SG&A Costs (10%) 1,865,555 8,068,940 10,879,650 12,746,625 12,003,031 8,872,625 8,872,625 8,872,625 8,872,625 8,872,625 6,654,469 96,581,395 Depreciation exp 2,070,000 8,280,000 8,280,000 8,280,000 8,280,000 8,280,000 8,280,000 8,280,000 8,280,000 8,280,000 6,210,000 82,800,000 EBIT 10,149,995 42,363,960 55,801,125 60,366,150 42,995,294 27,873,744 25,688,750 23,394,507 20,985,551 18,456,147 11,850,205 339,925,428 Interest - - - - - - - - - - - - Tax @ 30% 3,044,999 12,709,188 16,740,338 18,109,845 12,898,588 8,362,123 7,706,625 7,018,352 6,295,665 5,536,844 3,555,061 101,977,628 Net Profit 7,104,997 29,654,772 39,060,788 42,256,305 30,096,706 19,511,621 17,982,125 16,376,155 14,689,885 12,919,303 8,295,143 237,947,799 Cash on hand $16m (assumes $82.8m capital cost to first pour) [per Fidelity Investment Mgmt PRZ June 14] No.shares 1,283,674,237 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Average EPS (cents per share) 0.553 2.310 3.043 3.292 2.345 1.520 1.401 1.276 1.144 1.006 0.646 1.854 PE Ratio Price NCM = 26 48 KCN = 23 43 Gold Sector = 13 24
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Last
37.0¢ |
Change
-0.005(1.33%) |
Mkt cap ! $2.516B |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
37.0¢ | 37.5¢ | 36.0¢ | $8.665M | 23.58M |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
2 | 418273 | 37.0¢ |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
37.5¢ | 611282 | 24 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
1 | 204000 | 0.370 |
3 | 796178 | 0.365 |
23 | 1101542 | 0.360 |
9 | 770255 | 0.355 |
17 | 1178500 | 0.350 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
0.375 | 489438 | 18 |
0.380 | 927711 | 22 |
0.385 | 882461 | 12 |
0.390 | 263239 | 7 |
0.395 | 503014 | 8 |
Last trade - 16.10pm 18/10/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
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