martis's - worry when i'm worried - thursday, page-7

In America:

Dow Industrials -0.12%
Dow Transports -0.08%
SP500 -0.07%
Russell 2000 -0.27%
Nasdaq100 -0.23%

Comment: The Dow Industrials had a flat, narrow range day on lower volume than the previous day. Lots of indecision in that action.

NewHighs/NewLows came in at 95/17. That's a positive result on a slightly down day. I?d like to see New Highs get back above 100.

The Materials Sector -0.08% and Energy Sector -0.25%. Slightly negative for the Australian market today.

Six of nine S&P Sectors were down, Fianacials, which has generally underperformed in recent months, was the best performer, 1.14%. The Banking Sector was up strongly, +1.45%. Semi-conductors had a moderate pull-back after the previous day's outstanding effort, -0.58%.

Europe:
France +1.61%
Germany +0.4%
London +1.1%

Gold in U.S. Dollars is up +0.88%. Gold in Oz Dollars is up +0.57%. AUD/USD, flat +0.17% to finish at 107.48. EWA (the ETF for Australian shares) was up +1.15 after being up over 2% the previous day. With a flat Oz Dollar and a flat U.S. market, I'm surprised that EWA was that strong today.

Technical Comment on the DJ Industrial Average:
The DJIA finished at 12571.9. Held under the resistance area around 12590.
Above the 13-Day MA. Negative.
Above the 150-Day MA. Positive.
Indicators:
Stochastic: 60.8. Still below its signal line. Caution
The 13-Day MA is above the 150-Day MA and heading up. Positive.
RSI.9 is at 59.2. Positive.
MACD Histogram below Zero . Negative
MACD above Zero. Positive.
CCI.14: +45.5 and rising.

The chart remains below the lower tyne on the medium term pitchfork from June. That's still bearish.

At this stage ? the short term trend has reverted to the upside (unconfirmed). A positive cross by the MACD Histogram above Zero and the Stochastic above its signal line is required for confirmation. Caution.

In last night's comments on the Australian market, I showed a little hubris. The market is not as easy to read as I suggested last night. If today's hesitation in the U.S. is followed by a big down day - then the unconfirmed uptrend is aborted. Let's see how tonight develops before getting too cocky.

"As flies to wanton boys are we to th' gods,
They kill us for their sport."
Shakespeare, "King Lear"

The following summary of last night's company reports in the U.S. comes from CNBC:



All companies surprised to the upside by lesser or greater margins. The relative weakest was Northern Trust (NTRS), a financial services company. Ebay was modestly better. Intel (INTC) although surprising strongly to the upside, gave guidance that they expected computer sales to weaken into the near future. (Intel fell in after-hours trading.) These positive results keep coming - that will probably put a floor under the market.

We shall see.

Good luck
Redb