Good to see some thinking about revenue estimates for cvac in near future. I posted this this from latest investor pres.
I think its first time we are able to disect an anticipated future sale price for cvac from this. Stated in the pres as follows...
10% of market in first year
revenue being $500mil per year
so thats $500,000,000/7,000 = ~$71k per patient (prob on average across US, Europe, Australia and Japan)
This compares well with Provenage at $93k per patient given cvac can can also be applied to other cancers as well (not accounted for here) is quite an impressive take.
- others stated here as "breast, colorectal, lung, gastric and pancreatic"
Will be interested to find if other countries outside USA can afford this average rate(eurozone and japanese,aussies, kiwis) this. Maybe the price will be dif in dif countries.
Also stated is global diagnosis number 318,000*
Also interesting that only 10% market penetrated in this esimate.
PE or 10 gives $5bil market cap in first year of sales.
[* Thomson Business Intelligence, Ovarian Cancer Therapeutics Industry Analysis 2007]
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