ARU arafura rare earths ltd

how does aru differ from lyc., page-11

  1. 872 Posts.
    Julia states.
    "the difference is a simple story worth 3.2x billion $: "we are the first major REE producer outside China".

    Agree it is a simple story...Im racking my brain as to who on the ASX was the last company that had "First Mover Advantage.

    Big movers like FMG,and PDN moved into mature sectors.

    PDN is probably closest,and we all know their rise over that initial 3 yr period...60C to $10.80.

    So simple yes..its importance..PRICELESS.

    I have held and sold ARU,ALK,NTU,and currently hold LYC (no selling)..so follow the sector closely.

    Your points make sense,should all those things go wrong for LYC,and the advantages that will give ARU.

    Therefore its also more balanced to look at what happens if LYC progress smoothly.

    Their qrtly report reiterates that by end of August the required reports from the IAEA (waste management /storage plans) will be completed and submitted to the AELB.
    First feed to commence by end 2011.

    The stage that the LAMP is at was highlighted by the Purchase of $16m ores to test run through the plant...(required as there is still the restriction of ores from Mt W till pre op license).

    What ever new costs are encountered by LYC is not only covered in the kitty,but have 2 Financial Insto. wanting to throw $100m at the drop of a request.

    The Protestors have now become rational..agreement reached with the MCA that the protestors would employ professional engineers,Scientists etc to form a committee and deal in FACTS,..not scare mongering and mis information.

    So if there is no real delay..ARU will be min 2 yrs behind..not taking into account the many unknowns yet to be faced.

    Noone will learn from LYC..the LAMP site is heavily guarded..self proclaimed Guru..Jack Lifton barred from visiting LYC sites...Process plants are top secret.ie every other REE company will still be pioneers ..so the 2 years ARU are behind could blow out to 3-4 yrs.

    MCP will be in production in 2 yrs time ,and with LYC and china demand supply figures will be interesting for all emerging REE companies..the window will be much smaller for ARU ..still not producing compared to LYC ..well into phase 2 production..with phase 3 on the drawing board.

    Yes if it goes the way you see it Julia, then the only thing that happens is that LYC,s First mover advantage slightly shortens but will have no effect on their price.

    Should it go smoothly..then LYC becomes ARU,s /and everyone elses biggest nightmare.




 
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