The current takeover position as I see it is that Stone, either has, or can move quickly to a blocking position taking into account the number of CRE shares uncommitted (even allowing for FML to exercise the convertible notes and associated options).
The forgotten factor in attempting to number crunch an outcome are the number of CRE shareholder holdings that will remain uncommitted at the close of the offer, no matter if the bid is increased, or whatever (hence the 90% rule in all takeovers).
The only way the bid can now succeed is if Stone accepts the FML offer.
Would think that it is time for FML (that is if they have not done so already) to ascertain with a deadline exactly what Stone's intentions are, so if necessary Stone can be treated as a hostile party.
At the moment I see no value in FML exercising the convertible notes and options, it being better to keep the $13m in play, especially in a failed takeover scenario they could pick up even more CRE shares by converting at a later date after the CRE share price has plummeted, or alternatively as some have pointed out go for an asset grab.
Thoughts?
takeover situation
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13.5¢ |
Change
0.015(12.5%) |
Mkt cap ! $38.68M | |||
| Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
| 13.5¢ | 13.5¢ | 13.5¢ | $869 | 6.437K |
Buyers (Bids)
| No. | Vol. | Price($) |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 100000 | 11.0¢ |
Sellers (Offers)
| Price($) | Vol. | No. |
|---|---|---|
| 13.5¢ | 17776 | 1 |
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| Last trade - 16.10pm 07/08/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
| FML (ASX) Chart |