pen valuation revisited

I noticed quite a few posters insisting that PEN is significantly undervalued or is a bargain as it's ONLY 5.9 cents and that the current price doesn't factor in Karoo all. Thought I'd start this thread to look into this matter a little more closely.

Per RCR's latest report on PEN ( found on the PEN website), they have valued Lance (derisked and fully permitted) at $162m once it commences production at the end of 2012 based on the following assumptions:
- Average uranium price of $60/lb
- Uranium resource of 60.2mlbs (current JORC is 41.4mlbs)
- Initial uranium production of 1.5mlbs/annum
- Vanadium production of 1.2mlbs/annum @ $7.50/lb
- Opex and Capex as per PFS

Current market cap is $179m (5.9cents x 3040m shares fully diluted).

Based on the above info if posters still insist that the current share price only takes into account Lance and nothing about Karoo, then we can draw the following conclusions. The current share price/ market cap already factors in:
1) an additional 18.8 mlbs to PEN's JORC over the next 12 months;
2) mining approval and Lance being fully permitted and derisked;
3) no additional delays;
4) an additional $17m premium for additional upside potential.

The above probably also explains why the share price falls after most 'good' announcements as IMO a lot of the good news has already been factored into the share price.

If you disagree with the average uranium price used, please provide supporting evidence of any DFS or Post Fukushima off take agreements that have secured the $70+ prices posters keep throwing around.

Also interesting to note that the valuation of PEN INCLUDING KAROO and additional exploration upside at Lance and Karoo in the next 12 months is between 7.5cents and 9.1cents depending on the price additional shares are issued at from additional capital raisings. Definitely not a the kind of upside that quite a few rampers on the PEN forum go on and on about. This is of course again based on an average uranium price of $60/lb.

Whilst I agree that the valuations will increase if or when the uranium price increases, the reality is that AT THE MOMENT, the uranium price is still down and sentiment towards the sector is still negative. Whether PEN shareholders like it or not, the PEN share price will trade around a price based on whatever the DFS values Lance at based on the uranium price they use in their modelling WHEN IT IS RELEASED.

As most other uranium companies and even broker research reports are currently using $60 to $65/lb as their average uranium price, I will be very surprised if PEN use anything higher. So IMO PEN, at this point in time, is not SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED and is not trading at BARGAIN BASEMENT prices as some posters here insist.

Interested to see posters calculations on why they believe PEN is currently SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED.