Morning traders. Many thanks to Endless for launching all three threads here yesterday. (The first hat-trick in the history of the forum? Sterling effort.)
Market wrap: Shares are likely to start the day moderately lower after a mixed session on Wall Street was partly offset by gains in key commodities.
The September SPI futures contract ended the night session 12 points or 0.3% weaker at 4260 as US shares fluctuated between losses and gains following a weak sales outlook from Dell and signs that further quantitative easing in the US faces strong opposition within the Federal Reserve.
The Dow was up as much as 123 points and down as much as 84 before finishing 4 points or 0.04% higher. The S&P 500 added 0.09% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq lost 0.47% as investors lowered expectations for tech spending following Dell's downbeat quarterly report. The computer-maker reported reduced consumer spending and said the demand outlook was "uncertain".
The market gave up initial gains after two members of the Federal Reserve doused hopes for another round of quantitative easing (or "QE3"). The president of the Federal Bank of Philadelphia, Charles Plosser, condemned the Fed's commitment to keep interest rates near zero until mid-2013 as "inappropriate policy" and said interest rates would likely have to rise before then. Dallas President Richard Fisher said the central bank should not mould its policy to protect stock investors. Both dissented at the last Fed meeting.
"People started to re-evaluate the odds of a QE3," the chief investment strategist at Wells Capital Management in the US told Bloomberg. "There are a lot of people that have been saying we're going to get a QE3. The fact that Fisher came out today with a very explicit comment brought some selling in. It reduces the odds of a QE3. Dell's figures are important because they say something about the consumer."
Improving risk appetite and further weakness in the US dollar helped commodities. Oil charged through $89 a barrel before a surprise increase in US inventories dampened the rally. Crude for September delivery was recently ahead 79 cents or 0.9% at US$87.44 a barrel.
Gold once again neared the US$1,800 level as Venezuela announced plans to nationalise its gold industry and Tuesday's meeting of Europe's leaders failed to soothe nerves over the euro-zone's debt crisis. Gold for December delivery rallied $8.20 or 0.5% to US$1,793.20 an ounce. September silver added 52 cents or 1.3% at US$40.34 an ounce.
Industrial metals mostly improved as a rise in core producer prices in the US encouraged hedging. In London, copper put on 1.2%, aluminium 0.9%, lead 0.8%, nickel 0.85% and zinc 1.3%. Tin eased 0.2%. US copper was recently up 1.1%.
The major European markets closed mixed as bank stocks and exchange operators were undermined by plans for a new financial transactions tax proposed by German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy. Britain's FTSE lost 0.49% and Germany's DAX fell 0.77%, but France's CAC added 0.73%.
TRADING THEMES TODAY
CONSOLIDATING THE REBOUND: I missed yesterday's trade and don't know why our market ran as hard as it did, but it looks to have got a little ahead of itself, relative to overseas markets. The rebound here is much further advanced than in the US, UK or Japan, for example. That makes a pleasant change for local investors, but it also suggests that the most we can hope for today is to tread water. Overnight commodity price movements were broadly supportive for the mining sector and should limit any downside. US sectors were mixed, with oilers, precious-metals miners, financials, airlines, utilities and insurers advancing, while tech stocks, industrials and transport stocks mostly fell.
ECONOMIC NEWS: No scheduled domestic reports today but Japanese GDP is due at 9.50 am AEST. A busy night ahead in the US includes the consumer price index and core CPI, weekly unemployment claims, existing-home sales, the Philly Fed manufacturing index, leading index, natural gas storage and a speech by a member of the Federal Reserve.
