Hi Schiffhead,
To me it comes down to two statements in the Notice of Meeting to extend the notes:
1) All the major players, particularly Dutchess and John Nicholls/Harmony support the extension.
2) The Company is pursuing a major capital raising and seeking other sources of equity.
Harmony would not, IMO, support the extension if there wasn't light at the end of the tunnel in terms of successfully commercialising MST technology in the chosen formats - MAUL/3GL/FireStorm.
Since commercialisation is entirely dependent on funding, they must know/believe that fundraising efforts over the next six months will, on balance, prove successful. If Harmony especially did not believe this, they would shut MST down the same way they did to Chemeq.
Fundraising efforts are focussed on a major capital raising AND other sources of equity.
Given that one major purpose of fundraising is to retire the notes, "other soucres of equity" could only, IMO, involve a cornerstone shareholder paying for a significant chunk of equity in return for an exclusive license for one or more MST products. The reasoning being that they would not replace one set of notes with another type of financial instrument. Plus they specifically use the term "equity."
Seems to me that $19 million as an upfront license/cornerstone holding for say, Colt, to secure global rights to MAUL isn't an unreasonable or extravagent amount.
Should such a deal be successfully concluded, I don't believe the company would have any difficulty securing the additional $10-$15 million required to fund commercialisation.
Conclusion: Everything is inextricably entwined. Neither of the fundraising initiatives can succeed without the other. Commercialisation cannot and will not happen without both fundraising initiatives being successfully concluded.
The fact that all major parties are united in pursuing a successful outcome suggests we will have a successful outcome. IMO, everything points to Colt being our White Knight.
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