Riverdry, I like to see bearish posts. I especially like to hear about past mgt problems. Don't want to be late to the party sucker. But your mkt cap stuff is false science. They could get shareholder approval to issue another 1bill shares, it wouldn't mean you need to add $600m to the market cap.
You've already included 11m of shares that they haven't issued. That's not right.
The listed options are worth 9cents each. Your calling it 16m shares of dilution when its only have negative value of $1.5m against ordinary shareholders.
The non listed options are still there I think but are all short dated and struct in excess of $1.25. Virtually no negative value.
Even if you look at enterprise value on completion, which is the most relevant number, you don't need to adjust much. They already have $17m of $26m project costs. Add $8m working capital and the incremental debt or equity requirement is only $17m.
So firm value at stage 1 completion is $65m by my calcs:
76m shares at 60 cents $45.6m Listed options $1.5m Unlisted Options $0.5m Debt $17m Pro Form Ent Value $65m
That compares to run rate EBITDA at Q1 next yr of $50m without lucky bay or $70m with it.
I think whatever way you look at it its cheap. Even including weak asx, some execution, macro and mgt credibility issues.
The real question to me is whether it's too cheap as Parrot has suggested, implying the market has astutely recognised major flaws. With short term catalysts, I'm willing to be the market has got it badly wrong for now.
Each to their own, but if you think they arn't very likely to get a bank deal, you should cut it out like a tumour and maybe re-enter at the discounted emergency rights issue that will probably be required in that circumstance. You would probably even get a change of management I'd imagine.
TYX Price at posting:
57.0¢ Sentiment: ST Buy Disclosure: Held
