bow takeover

In case you all missed it, BOW received a takeover from Arrow Energy this morning. $1.48 per share.

This gives us another opportunity to compare values for reserves, although with BOW this is a bit hard... because BOW has done a lot of "easy" drilling to get their 3P reserves very high, while they are yet to put runs on the board in terms of production (2P & 1P reserves).

But for interests sake:

BOW price at $1.48/share = $520.5m

On 2P of 238PJ = $2.19/PJ
On 3P of 2752PJ = $0.189/PJ


For MPO that equals the following, but I wouldn't focus on any single figure.

2P = 328.3PJ x 2.19 = 718.98m (I wouldn't bank on that)
3P = 789PJ x $0.189 = $149m

Now the important thing to note with this is that BOW is a completely different stage to MPO in terms of project development. MPO has more 2P. It also has 1P, which I don't think BOW has. But MPO has less 3P, or "probable" reserves.

I would hazard a guess that an MPO deal would be higher for 3P, and a lot lower for 2P.

Also BOW has some other activities too, so who knows what they have been valued at.

But at least this gives a bit more insight to a value for MPO's QLD Acreage. When you combine this with the ESG metrics.

BOW Deal again:
2P = 328.3PJ x 2.19 = 718.98m (I wouldn't bank on that)
3P = 789PJ x $0.189 = $149m

ESG metrics
2P = 328.3PJ x $0.92/GJ = $302m
3P = 789PJ x $0.50/GJ = $394.50m


If you took a LOW ball estimate for MPO at $0.5 GJ/2P and $0.3/GJ/3P

You would have

2P 328.3 x $0.60 = $197m
3P 789 x $0.30 = $236.7m

So say $200m.... or roughly 80c per share.... and how much of that is currently factored into the share price. Nil.. we are all cash backing.

Interesting that STO has made a move, so has Shell/Petro China. That leaves BG group and Origin as LNG players who haven't made a move.

Anyway, I know it is extremely frustrating and horrible with the share price where it is, but at current levels, we are valuing MPO at cash only... bit of a no brainer value wise, if you are willing buy in gloom, to hopefully sell in boom.

Good luck to all holders

Cheers

pukin