bow takeover, page-25

So db,

If ORG becomes a seller of large amounts of gas to get BG out of a hole, then where are ORG's reserves for future gas-fired power? Where is ORG's gas in NSW for this brave new low-carbon world?

You can shuffle the deckchairs, but there just isn't enough gas to go around.

Do ORG then come cap-in-hand to Santos, begging Santos to supply their new gas-fired power stations in NSW?

Are ORG happy to be a price taker, with Santos controlling the gas at source?

But, I agree with you db. ORG doesn't need to be in LNG. It isn't their core business. They benefit from rising gas prices anyway by virtue of the other projects. Even without an LNG project, they benefit as a 'free-rider' on the back of the LNG arbitrage. ORG and ESG would have been an excellent fit, especially if ORG decides to sell down large chunks of LNG, perhaps to their mates at BG.

But alas, it looks like Santos has won the day. Alley's mob look like they beat your mob to the punch db. :)


db, here is what you said just a few weeks ago about ORG and how they and ESG were a good fit (strangely, it almost sounds like you were saying there was multi-party interest in ESG, from Santos and from ORG):

"I reckon you are on to something with ORG.
Their tenement map shows that outside APLNG they dont have too much and Nil in NSW. They have got bass gas and otway down south connected to the grid into NSW.

ORG could be the one that is sniffing around. STO is too slow to notice. ORG once it gets to FID on the APLNG and reduces its Interest% would have some money.

I reckon we can forget about STO ever making a takeover move on ESG.

Lets try and get ORG interested. Best would be ESG and ORG having a friendly chat like some companies do these days and all of a sudden it is a "done" deal and ORG becomes the new majority owner of ESG and most of the JV. I reckon ORG would pay 1mth VWAP+60 equivalent at least. STO of course will have to decide it 20.97% but faced with ORG having more than 51% STO might just decide to take a profit and sell its % to ORG but retain its 35% of the JV. Swap ESG for ORG.That way STO gets a partner of similar strength with Gladstone interests for later-On Trains to more easily fund the huge field development bill. We as ESGers could accept ORG shares and ourselves transfer our stake into the more robust ORG. ORG can also use some of its gas for its local NSW needs.

I reckon you have cracked the Conundrum."


Well db, it looks like your mates at Origin, and their mates BG, are the ones out in the cold. I am starting to think that Alley and friends are actually the good guys, with whom ESG have been working. And it is ORG (and BG) are the ones who missed out on a musical chair.

What do you think Alley?

Yaq