beware of what the future holds, page-4

Hi DCF and ASF

Today's results announcement was enlightening. A relatively good full year result, although approx 30-40% of it due to in the money FX hedging. It is the FY2012 guidance that is interesting, FY 2012 NPAT in the $7.5-8.5m range. Given my earlier posts re running out of FX hedges, and with the relentless strength in the AUD, I expected a steeper decline in FY2012 earnings and thus their guidance comes as mildiy surprising to me. I actually thought that 2012 would be worse than this, so they must be having good underlying organic growth to have cushioned the fall (plus healthy cost cutting).
What will be interesting is how will the market react to this, as some decline must have been anticipated, but how much decline has market already factored.
I watch this stock as I see it as somewhat counter collerated to the strength in AUD and at some stage there will be a time to buy. However the benefits of any fall in the value of the AUD, if and when it comes, will be somewhat muted depending on the level of FX cover they have taken at today's high rates.
I also realise that there may be better/ safer high yielding asset backed plays that can provide the same benefits, when and if the AUD falls.

Nonetheless interesting.