Dear All,
Clearly the roaring silence is not doing anyone any favours but do you really belive FAR mgment are in any position to provide a real and meaningful update, at this point in time. The only real positive out of Evans' Africa Down Under presentation was that FAR still has $26 mil BUT this is not enough to go it alone in Senegal deepwater. Drill cost estimate is about $40 mil. For Ophir's 25%, their share of cost = $15mil (@ 37.5%).
The first real post-Kora announcement is due in under 3 weeks - Ophir's announcement re 25% option. Getting Ophir's signature is crucial to FAR - IMO; No signature = No decree.
The fact that Ophir has sought a 12mth extension on its lease indicates that Kora was NOT a clear cut DRY well.
Africa Petroleum's Gambia drill has potential to financially save FAR BUT drill is not planned until well after Ophir decision. In addition, as recent as Aug 2011, APetroleum continue to list (in their presentations) FAR's Senegalese tenements as under "application".
So, although frustrating at lack of issuance of any substantial information from FAR, I do not believe that Evans and crew are in any position (at this time) to provide what we shareholders a crave. The three critical company making decisions:
1. Ophir decision to take up 25% option.
2. Ministerial decree - which (IMO) is contingent on FAR getting farm-in because it is plain obvious FAR cannot go it alone.
3. APet Gambia drill: Success here will completely turn this equation on its head and (IMO) would put A Pet in drivers seat (from Senegalese point of view). FAR absolutely needs farm-in signature to stave off extinction and tempus fugit.
So, it is pointless us sniping at each other because that will not achieve anything. Silence in market is not good and falling price is testimony to that. Clearly, Evans and crew are having great difficulty selling their project and Kora did not help. Perhaps, to secure a farm-in, FAR mgment may have reduce asking price because the risk of no signature is too great!!!!
Just some thoughts whilst we await,
MS
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2 | 104597 | 0.485 |
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1 | 100000 | 0.475 |
1 | 100000 | 0.470 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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