todays guru tomorow's ?? - no one is right all the time
-marti might be right again, but there has been an awful lot of people predicting doomsday financially in the past few years and even more at present ( are we dying an obvious slow death or is as what "normally " happens we will be saved by a miracle cure we dont really know of - in the gfc i guess it was profligate stimulus in the west and real growth in china and india ) - vice versa normally applies also - we are normally felled by something not many are predicting or know of
- many of us have made very good money in that period and even if we had gone to cash in late 08 would now have been much worse off. Even if the markets fall 30 to 40% from here , the remaining invested strategy has still delivered for many ( not the majority )
- everyone has a different risk acceptance and technique and many of the experienced investors and traders contributing on hc can be recognised by their quiet confidence in their own strategy - that is earned along a fairly hard road at times and i know plenty who sell a majority of their portfolio when things look scary and still do well over a long period
- i came to this thread because i normally only look at the asx general forum when i believe the market is getting to a critical juncture - there have been quite a few in the past few years- i normally read all the bearish posts and put a post on the general forum which is a bit positive or saying we might have a drop but value is here abouts - i dont know how to call it this time, mainly because of the profligate europeans and the other circumstances we have
- we could be seeing the "end of capitalism" as many have been calling but it is very unlikely - i think we are seeing; besides the obvious debt issues, the markets grappling with low growth scenarios and high unemployment, and their relationship with the high gov't debt ( choking on debt with low growth and high unemploynent i think was said -Marti )- various other factors are at play also: - technology replacing jobs and in some cases, whole business models; ageing population; low population growth; fixed currencies; poor governments; poor regulations incl on banks....LEADS TO HUGE UNCERTAINTY - if the above wasnt enough the USA (fannie and freddie) lob a huge lawsuit at the banks of the world, and then fri night the head of european central bank does a huge dummy spit!!
- i like strauss's summary of having a few quiet years but with some fortunes to be made and i think Johnnys first well researched post is very good and sometimes people get too hung up on technicalities (and the charts for that matter!!)- i also believe the markets are also adjusting the pe's to a more realistic nine to 11 ( which might bring the 7 mentioned by johnny into play if a severe earnings drop is factored in ); the pe of 9 to 11 the west might have to get used to as the "growth fuelled by debt strategy" is fast running out of puff
- disagree with marti's statement of things having no value - that will only be true if it is the end of capitalism-
i do note some debate in the media about what drove the turnaround during the day when the market shat itself on august 8th and rumours of asian sovereign fund buying etc - could it be that 'the market' decided that 3800 odd for the all ords was getting a bit cheap?! I guess that thesis will be teated again in the next week or so - bias to downside obviously but i am still trying to be optimistic and hope that the market participants buy value when they see it.
