I first became familiar with Harry Dent in early 1990s. He published Our Power to Predict in 1989. At the time major driver of business methods was learning the "Japanese Way", as Japan could do no wrong. Whereas great pessimism in US re recession/ depression(get feel for this if read Market Wizards). Harry Dent in 1989 predicted boom in Western World through 90s and that Japan would enter multi-decade recession (not depression as had booming Western world to export to). This was radical +++ at the time. Also stated West would have set back early 2000s followed by further boom. Then stated West would enter depression starting approx 2008 lasting until 2020-2023. Based on demographics peak spending 46-55yrs of age. Reduce spending within 10yrs of retirement, as increase savings for retirement. Then large drop off in spending on retirement. Note Japan had baby boom pre-WWII as Japan militarised, Emperor encouraged large families. Dent's methodology is sound as given he predicted downturn in West 19yrs before if occurred as well Japan's 20yr slump, I would not bet against him in medium to long term regarding major macro-economic trends. Though Govt intervention and vagaries of markets may distort in short term.
