elixia asia sales $200 mill within 3 yrs, page-38

Dear Alan P,

No, I wouldnt agree.

Here is a good understanding of extrapolation from the paper:

"Forecasting by Extrapolation: Conclusions from 25 Years of Research"
J. Scott Armstrong 1984 Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania

For the practitioner, the implications are clear: Relatively simple extrapolation methods like those described by Brown [1959], Shiskin [1958], and Winters [1960] are adequate. The analyst should make adjustments for outliers, trading days, and seasonality, then use a relatively simple method such as exponential smoothing to estimate trend and seasonal factors. These methods provide accuracy equivalent to more complex methods at a lower cost, and they are easier to understand. Remember the advice of William of Occam, who said "one should not introduce complexities unless absolutely necessary." Despite the fact that William died of the Black Death in 1349, "Occam's Razor" is good advice. Finally, use more than one method. My suggestion is to spread the budget over three or four in expensive and easily understood. methods, then calculate an average forecast.

What CCZ were doing was Forecasting revenue on a discounted hypothesis.

Hope that helps.

BSW