My calcs on adults only model...
total patient population = 75000
Adults (42%) = 75000 x 42% = 31,500
Base case uptake 30% = 31500 x 30% = 9450
Revenues @ $10k pa = 9450 x 10k = 94.5M
Cost of sales = 50M
Earnings = 94.5M (revenue) - 50M (cost of sales) = 44.5M
Shares outstanding: 229M
Earnings per share = 44.5M / 229M = 19.4c per share
Base case PE = 6
Stock price: 6 x 19.4 = $1.16
There you have it.. my base case price target is revised to $1.16 per share.
I am guessing Lombard used higher % of patient uptake and possibly higher pricing model or PE to come up with his $1.50 target.
Note: I topped up at 70c today
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6 | 1933333 | 0.030 |
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Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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