dgoranssons - herd management thursday, page-172

A lot of people had a lot to say today. Must be a good contrarian omen. :)

XJO (ASX200) -2.6%%
XTL (Twenty Leaders) -2.6%
XFL (Fifty Leaders) -2.6%
XFJ (Financials) -2.3%
XMJ (Materials) -4.4%
Energy -3.5%
XSO (Small Ordinaries) -3.4%

That?s ugly ? no matter how you look at it. The Materials Sector was particularly ugly. The volume was high ? the highest since (you guessed it) early August. If it?s that high ? a turnaround can?t be far away. But ? you know me by now ? Contrarian to the core. But ? look towards the end of the post. The Rational Me dominates.

INDICATORS:
RSI.9: 35.9. Oversold.
MACD (zero-lag) Histogram. Marginally below Zero. Neutral.
MACD (zero-lag). Below zero. Negative.
Stochastic: 13.3. Oversold..
CCI.14: -141. Oversold.
8-DSMA below the 34-DSMA. Negative.
The XJO closed down at 3964.8. At support around 3950.

The market appears to be close to a medium term resolution point. That doesn?t mean the market will go up in the next couple of days ? but the probabilities favour it.

If the market breaks major support with a big down move on high volume ? then we could be in for another waterfall like we saw in early August. But the market might be too oversold and at major support for that to happen. But ? you Never Never Know in Stock Market Land.

Don?t pre-empt the market.

The trends are down.

Barnsty had a "back-up the trucks" level posted today. He could be right.

I've got one on the VIX. But more on that tomorrow.

Good luck
Redbacka