Durmo,
I would be interested to know what evidence you have to support your theory that not much is happening, and that the buyers and the sellers are the same people.
Analysis of the broking data for this month, compared to an earlier version of the report from last week suggests that JP Morgan continue to be the major buyers, and have not sold one share during the month.
Also the selling that was previously coming from Nomura and UBS has pedominantly ceased. In the last week the selling has come from Comsec and E-Trade.
So I am still inclined to believe the story that the buyer is not related to the seller, but happy to be convinced otherwise.
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