Just ran some numbers looking at expected cashflow in H2 FY11 based on the production and cash costs in the 28 September Presentation.
Production (as per the presentation):
Total of 30,000 oz at Svarliden (18,422 to come in H2)
Total of 28,000 oz from Vammala (15,249 to come)
Cash costs (as per the presentation):
Svartliden = 850/oz for whole year (implies $597 for H2)
Vammala = 875/oz for whole year (implies $481 for H2)
As the implied cash costs for H2 are very low, two calculations were performed, one with H2 costs at 850/875 and the other with H2 costs at 597/481 to cover the possibility that the cash costs are not clearly stated in the presentation.
Gold Hedging (as per H1 report):
Svartliden (13,250 oz in 9 months, assume 8,833 in H2 FY11 at a price of $1374/Oz)
Vammala (10,000 oz in H2 FY11 at $1,504/oz)
Average $US/oz for unhedged gold
Assumed at current price of $1650 average for H2 (average for 1 July-23 September 2011 is $US1715/oz). In effect, assuming that $US gold price drops to average of $US1585 for the remainder of the year.
Estimated H2 cash flow:
Svartliden: $US17.0m at $597/oz and $YS12.1m at $850/oz
Vammala: $US16.4m at $481/oz and $US10.7m at $875/oz
Total: $US33.3m if average cash costs in the presentation are full year OR $US22.8m if average cash costs are H2 only.
Notes:
1) Currency hedging was ignored - they may be significant
2) Cash costs at Svarliden include expensing of waste costs
3) Cash costs at Vammala include refining costs
Conclusions:
The company is currently valued at about $A100m - this includes about $A20m in cash. Cash flow in H2 is going to be between $US23 and $US33m in H2.
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