i've seen it all now the xjo thread is full of predictions yet its related to nothing much than a bunch of lines on a chart - while Slovakia hold their crucial vote.....
the thread and xjo forum have become all about Martis and others, like he/they is/are the news - time for a reality check folks........
As if the threat of a Slovak block on the EFSF were not enough to unsettle the markets, Jean-Claude Juncker, eurogroup chairman and veteran Luxembourg premier, is talking again of a Greek default - and haircuts for private creditors (banks) of "more than 60percent" compared with the agreed voluntary cut of 21percent. José Manuel Barroso, European Commission president, is, meanwhile, taking George Osborne's professed concern for the future of eurozone at face value by suggesting the UK ("including those with their own currency") join any further Greek rescue. Oh, and reports from Athens say the 'troika' of EC,ECB and IMF or "debt inspectors" are ready to give Greece a yellow card on its budget deficit by being on course for 9% this year rather than the target 9%. And this will come in their report before the postponed EU summit on 23 October.
All these elements share one thing in common: they emanate from Germany or, at least in the case of Juncker, German-speaking Austria (he was talking to state broadcaster ORF). And it's the Germans who call the shots, of course - and have been talking up the huge haircuts lying in waiting (via Schäuble's finance ministry). Could be softening up public opinion before having to shoulder more of the EFSF burden if Slovakia votes against. Germans love blueprints: let's hope Berlin genuinely does have a plan it can persuade Sarko and the rest to endorse.
and
The troika has reached an agreement with Athens on reforms to put its troubled economy back on track - and, crucially, unlock the next payment of bail-out cash.
A joint statement from the EC, the ECB and the IMF said: The mission has reached staff-level agreement with the authorities on the economic and financial policies needed to bring the government's economic program back on track. Once the Eurogroup and the IMF's Executive Board have approved the conclusions of the fifth review, the next tranche of EUR 8 billion (EUR 5.8 billion by the euro area Member States, and EUR 2.2 billion by the IMF) will become available, most likely, in early November.
The success of the program continues to depend on mobilizing adequate financing from private sector involvement (PSI) and the official sector. Ongoing discussions on PSI together with assurances provided by European leaders at their July 21 summit suggest that the program remains fully financed. 12.51 The troika have made a statement on Greece: apparently the 2011 fiscal target is "no longer within reach".
(20min delay)