Just to clarify, in case it is not obvious, this model is only for the Ellenburger play within Triple Crown!
I also generalized at 150 Wells simply to get to common ground with AGM preso for 500Bcf. Calculations used a 10 year production horizon with 100 wells (not 150) again really to roughly match up to $3M - $10M NPV range given by mgmt.
I didn't show the modelled numbers for the $5Mcf and $6Mcf gas as didn't what to hype anything. Reality of course is that $4Mcf wont be static for 10 years either, nor will the cost of drilling the wells stay at $2M.
Just shows IMO that Ellenburger play alone is a company maker.
Somehow, assuming success with this well as a producer, CEL just needs to prove the concept across the acreage. This derisking will increase the "risked value" and from a model perspective dilution wont have a dramatic effect. Short term stock price though will always be at the whim of the market. Look at AUT, SSN for clues as to what is possible with derisked acreage.
Up to the drillbit now.
GLTA
CEL Price at posting:
10.5¢ Sentiment: LT Buy Disclosure: Held
