npat & valuation, page-78

i have assumed 20% for eu sales.
there was an error in yesterdays spreadsheet on that and i fixed it after. the difference was not significant so i didnt bother reposting.

the bottom line remains the same. while we are the only real generic we should earn around 40m npat (by 2014). if another generic enters npat will drop to about 20-25m.

the details we are discussing are shifting the valuation up or down just a few million. given these estimates are based on many assumptions looking for more accuracy is a bit of a fools errand. what we have is about as accurate as can be expected.

my fair value for fonda is somewhere between 70-100c depending market share of 35-45%, discount of 20-30% and only one additional generic entering the market in 2015.