ebita $10mill vs market cap $16??, page-8

G'day Ivan. You posted on the CUS thread that it was NZ. Come fishing over here for an alternate scenario? Well i have thought for some time about the sticky place that ICP have found themselves in regarding the ownership of NEO (Korea)
There is a deal on the table to give ICP 88.15% but as you have pointed out this would effectively hand over control to NEO who can do whatever they want, after the two year escrow. (Note that one of the major share holders of NEO is also a director of ICP! Steave Ham)
Firstly i would ask why aim for 88.15% when one only needs an additional 4% to take control over the 50%? Note i do not know if the value of these Bonds are fluctuating with the asset value of NEO. The notation of these Bonds, and their impact on ICP ownership of NEO, have only recently appeared in their announcements which was when a major shareholder Mr Ko of Union Pacific began to de-leverage which precipitated the plunge to our current levels, which was around the end June 2010.
Remember Shareholders have to approve this in the coming AGM end Nov. NEO owners sold some interest NOV 5 2010 to give them 8.18% of ICP (note escrow for this % is over 5 Nov, plus whoever is in their pocket from the top twenty, who as at 2nd June 2011 own just 38%.
If you look down that list, there are not many candidates who would stand with NEO, (in my opinion) except perhaps the Sherman group. (i think of them because ICP bought out their switching assets with both cash and shares and who knows in reality what value was put on the shares that were issued? After all the current deal states the scrip value of this current deal is 49.5 cents!!!) Cynical i am! So that would give them just 12%.
Many of the top 20 have been around for a long while and many of these and an awfull lot of the "sophisticated investors" (i recall you wanting this opportunity Ivan?)
bought in (or added) in the 40/50 cent range, and i can't see them rolling over for 16.5 cents.
So i think there is something else afoot.

Why not do a deal with CUS to sell them their Australian fleet (1600 odd) for cash, providing CUS dump Hyosung and sign exclusive deal for ICP/NEO machines, and use ICP swithching. Use the cash to buy out enough % of NEO to obtain majority ownership for good. Maybe Steave Ham has 4% of NEO?? Imagine the win win for him?

The important thing to remember here is that the Korean Bus is highly profitable with both re-curring income and growth in sales in ASIAN EMERGING MARKETS. It's going to be an awfull long time till "Paywave" effects those markets, Asia is all CASH
CUS and ICP Australian operations are equally under the pump. A deal like this would give CUS another 1600 machines which should help their bottom line, plus accses to a sucsefull technology advanced Asian manufacture NEO who seem to be putting runs on the board in Asia. For ICP a deal like this would take away the anchor that the Australian busines has on its earnings, it would settle the debate about what happens if NEO own more than 50% of ICP, and lastly investors would be looking at the current and potential earnings of their Asian business.

I guess that is an explanation of why i have hung around, and that annoucement by CUS about possible deals afoot was all too convienet when ICP have to present a deal before next friday to the market.

Please note this is all my own opinion, and a possibly dreamed up scenario, that is just that, a dream. I have no more knowledge than what i read in annoucements.

So Ivan your bait worked! Lets see what unfolds. Excuse my spelling, it's very late.