spoke to company, page-5

  1. 5,277 Posts.
    Moo,

    Firstly, thank you for sharing the details of your conversation. It is completely as odds with the panic that MM has tried to create.

    What you have written confirms what we all (except MM) suspected a few days ago ie that the quarterly cash balance was certainly nothing to worry about and that any potential capital raising would only done be to fulfill a large order ie a positive on delivering shareholder value.

    On any concerns over the price of a capital raising, as I've mentioned before, TZ can only issue up to 15% of the current 124m shares on issue. If they had wanted to raise more, they would have done so prior to the AGM and requested the necessary shareholder approval.

    So we are limited to a 15% dilution, which could possibly be 0% for each of us if it is a rights issue. However, would TZ really want the time consuming and costly exercise (prospectus required), and end up with potentially an underwritten shortfall to be dumped on us a la Pato's?

    The other option would be a placement to a party which would remain a cornerstone investor on the registry. This option would certainly be far more appealing and would result in a boost to the share price if tied in simultaneously with a contract.

    So at what price? Considering that TZ has constrained itself on the number of shares that they can to issue, this tells us that they will want to raise at as high a price as possible.

    18.6m x 0.40 = $7.4m
    18.6m x 0.50 = $9.3m
    18.6m x 0.60 = $11.2m

    The lower the price that they raise at, the less money that they have to fund any roll-outs.

    I also think that we should not assume TZ will raise up to the 15% allowance. It would make sense to issue as little as possible now, and raise more later in the year.

    I think we are on the verge of something major.




 
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