vor v avb analysis of quarterly reports

Since the release of the September Quarter 2011 Activities Reports for Avanco Resources (AVB) and Voyager Resources (VOR), I have been crunching the of the published assay results to get an understanding of the relative progress of the two 50,000 metre drilling programs. I am an investor/trader in both stocks, hence my interest.
I have converted each of the assay results of the Copper bearing intervals to 100% Copper equivalent measures for both AVB and VOR to be able to make a direct comparison.

I chose this method as both companies are in the early exploration phase of a 50,000 metre drilling campaign and we only have the assay results to base any analysis on at this point-in-time. Both companies have had success in locating copper bearing intervals in their drill core samples. Both companies have had difficulties getting their samples analysed in a timely manner. Both companies are still searching for the primary source of the copper bearing intervals. Both AVB and VOR expect to have a JORC compliant resource estimate early in 2012 (Q1 2012 and Q2 2012 respectively).

Over the last week, in my spare time, I have been entering the data and crunching the numbers. I was surprised with the results. I, like many others (I suspect) was seduced by the high grade copper zones that Avanco regularly announced in their ASX Announcements. However, when you look at all of the data, these high grade zones are usually confined to very thin intervals within the copper bearing intervals. When all of the copper bearing zones are converted to 100% Copper equivalent (metres of core), and divided by the sum of all copper bearing intervals, a different story emerges.

Avanco stated that they have completed 19,546 metres of a 50,000 metre drilling campaign (39.09% completed). They have published data for 17,721.67 metres which contain 1687.28 metres of copper bearing intervals from 158 recorded intervals with an average width of 10.68 metres, at an average depth to the top of the copper bearing interval of 60.81 metres. They have drilled 144+ holes at an average depth of 123.07 metres. Assay results are still pending for 33 holes. These copper bearing intervals are equivalent to 17.036 metres of 100% copper core, with an average assay result of 1.010% from the 1687.28 metres of copper bearing intervals. Much less than I had anticipated, given the high analysis results from selected high grade zones regularly reported in the ASX Announcements.

Voyager stated that they had completed 10,000 metres of a 50,000 metre drilling campaign (20.00% completed). They have published data for 8,243.3 metres which contain 1441.0 metres of copper bearing intervals from 37 recorded intervals with an average width of 38.95 metres at an average depth to the top of the copper bearing interval of 45.18 metres (excluding IP Deeps which was off-target or 99.19 metres including IP Deeps). They have drilled 164 holes at an average depth of 132.96 metres for the 62 holes published in the Quarterly report. Assay results are still pending for 109 holes. These copper bearing intervals are equivalent to 15.786 metres of 100% copper core, with an average assay result of 1.096% from the 1441.0 metres of copper bearing intervals.

When comparing the two companies, Voyager (VOR) appears to have much better results in most categories. From the published data, VOR has drilled approximately half the total metres of AVB, 8423.3 metres v 17,721.67 metres; yet they have discovered nearly the same amount of copper from the core samples - 15.786 metres of 100% copper core from 1441.0 metres of copper bearing intervals v 17.036 metres of 100% copper core from 1687.28 metres of copper bearing intervals for AVB, giving a strike rate of 17.48% (i.e. 17.48% of total drill core is copper bearing) v 9.52% for AVB. The average width of copper bearing intervals is nearly 4 times that of AVB 38.95m v 10.68m for AVB. VOR’s overall average Copper assay grade is slightly better than AVB 1.096% v 1.010% for AVB. VOR is still waiting for assay results from 109 of 164 holes v AVB waiting for assay results from 33 of 144 holes. VOR still has significant upside from approx half the total metres of drilling core samples.

By comparison, the Giant Oyu Tolgoi Deposit in Mongolia (Rio Tinto & Ivanhoe) has 3.75 billion tonnes at 0.98% copper and 0.38 g/t Gold.

Given all of the key data at this point-in-time VOR appears to have around double the copper resource (with significant upside with 2/3 of the assay results pending) just taking the assay results from the drilling core samples into account. I believe VOR is under-valued compared to AVB. Of course, the final JORC resource estimate will depend on drill spacing, copper bearing interval width, assay results, cut-off grades, seam depth etc.

I am not a geologist, my background is in agriculture, environmental research, data analysis and statistics, so I would be interested in any comments from resident geologists on the HotCopper forum.

I have included images of all of the data and my analysis from the September Quarterly 2011 Activities reports. I have based my analysis on published factual data, not guesswork or speculation.

I am still an investor/trader of both stocks, but after my analysis, I am leaning towards VOR…but who knows what assay results tomorrow will bring!!

As always DYOR,

Good luck to all holders of AVB and VOR,

Cheers,

GrayNomad


Images of all data and analysis follows:-)

AVANCO v VOYAGER COMPARISON

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Summary statistics of current drilling campaigns for Avanco Resources (AVB) and Voyager Resources (VOR).



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Footnotes for above summary



AVANCO RESOURCES

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Avanco Resources – Drilling Results for Antas North, Brazil



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Avanco Resources – Drilling Results for Antas Deeps, Brazil



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Avanco Resources – Drilling Results for Antas South (Part 1), Brazil



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Avanco Resources – Drilling Results for Antas South (Part 2), Brazil



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Avanco Resources – Drilling Results for Antas South (Part 3), Brazil



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Avanco Resources – Drilling Results for Capivara and Serra Verde (Part 1), Brazil



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Avanco Resources – Drilling Results for and Serra Verde (Part 2), Brazil



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Avanco Resources – Drilling Results for Rio Verde, Brazil



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Avanco Resources – Summary Drilling Results



VOYAGER RESOURCES

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Voyager Resources – Drilling Results for Coghur, Mongolia



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Voyager Resources – Drilling Results for Gaans, Regional IP, Zam Daguukh and IP Deeps, Mongolia



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Voyager Resources – Summary Drilling, Mongolia



That's all folks, DYOR and Good Luck!