Very aptly put Joker. All current HDR holders will be facing the same dilemma in the midst of next year’s drilling. To sell or not to sell. I for one, have been predisposed to trade so the temptation would be even greater.
If done well, trading HDR is a very profitable. The price history of HDR is well and truly borne out by pre-drilling excitement which then dissipates into apathy and disinterest, until the next drilling campaign starts. All in all, I think market participants have grown a bit jaded by the talk of HDR’s potentials and the pool of HDR faithfuls have dwindled rather then grown. The share placement has been a bit of a bebacle and Macquarie Bank's alleged manipulation of the share price have burnt a lot of optimistic warrant buyers. Having said that, I believe the current lull in the share price is a window of opportunity to accumulate, for investors and traders alike. On a one year perspective, HDR is very much news driven and there are plenty to come in the next year, 5 wells in Mauritania and 4 wells in WA. Once a firm drilling agenda is announced and development plans for Chinguetti firmed up by mid next year, HDR will gain some momentum. A 70c share price prior to the first well in Mauritania is a distinct possibility in my opinion.
Having had a look at HDR’s WA drilling. The Leafcutter and Twin Lions prospects could offer some pleasant surprises. A successful WA drilling campaign could produce reserve which in themselves would justify HDR’s current share price and more importantly, produce quick cash flow to HDR prior to Chinguetti in 2005/6.
I will accumulate in the next few months and will offload whatever I have bought during this time. I see it as compensation for having a core holding of HDR in the long term and plus it's there for the taking.
P.S FYI, I have offloaded my NCPs in the high 11s but looking to get back in if NCP retraced to 9 –10 region.
HDR Price at posting:
0.0¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
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