tommorrow, page-25

Pretty happy with today...

So bought a few more.

It appears some impatient types attempted to trigger a run from the outset...but this was always unlikely to work in my view.

I must say though...it was an extremely interesting buying spree to say the least, and one that could have easily resulted in a very serious push through 3c today that would have potentially set of a short-covering rally (shorts I hear you ask?).

I suspect this may have been in the back of the minds of the big buyers early on.

Sadly however, I suspect they may have underestimated the volumes still in the hands of temporaries, or the tenacity of their committment to hold it back for a re-load...or...they have another agenda to deliver.

Perhaps more on this later.

Also...I would not be surprised to learn naked shorts were in the market yesturday...this might also explain why someone hit it pretty hard this morning when a run looked like developing. If true, this will have an important impact on the back end of the process and next upwards break. If in fact someone has been selling shares that do not exist (naked short selling), it means we actually have more shares in the free float than actually exist...and as they are bought back, this will reduce the free-float significantly.

Again assuming this is the case, then in spite of a falsely expanded float...the market still held its ground in ANP...which basically tells me today's close is more significant than many might have realised.

Anyway...a fair bit of speculation here...but experience tells me I may not be far off the mark here?

Looking at more specific data...the VWAP's for yesturday (2.62c) and today (2.4c), indicate we have seen a classic swing trade event...(ie. out at 2.6c av, in at 2.4c av)...which I suspect was close to a completed cycle by the close.

So...with a likely re-load at 2.4c av, and a resistance wall now at 2.6c (yesterday's VWAP)...we may well expect to see the next push run relatively easily to 3.4c before decent net selling appears...and potentially into the high 3's should momentum grow as it did on Tuesday.

Last run kicked off from 2.2c, with a "VWAP set" around 2c...suggesting the current "VWAP set" can easliy take it to 3.6c and possibly as high as 3.9c before the next swing begins to show its hand.

In addition, I suspect the run through 3c this time will be on relatively light volumes...if/when it comes...at least compared to recent trading.

All this...and still no news?

I am expecting we may well see new highs before the week is out, with the last bit of softness cleared tomorrow.

Cheers!