I think you're making some good observations, and I personally tend to assume the truth will be in the more moderate middle somewhere.
I've known CB to make some pretty good calls in the past, but he's also very good at implying rather than saying outright which means there is a lot of wriggle room to interpret his words, just like there is in the BKP announcement he so deftly picked apart.
But by the same token, we have to admit that he's right in saying the announcement lacked a lot of details that could easily have been put in there.
My guess would be that the drill of this well didn't turn out as they expected, and they weren't sure on the spot how to proceed (or even *if* to proceed). So they decided to pack up early and have a long careful look at what data they gathered before deciding if/what to do next about it.
This may either mean that when the wet season ends they might have figured how best to complete what they already have, or that they come back and decide to drill somewhere else first in the hopes of getting a better picture of what the shale looks like before completing anything.
And we have to bear in mind that they aren't cash constrained by any means yet at this point in time. PFC raised truckloads on the back of the Ryder Scott report, and BKP did a cap raising to well and truly cover its own 25% for a fair number of wells.
To sum up, I think the announcement wasn't as rosy as we'd all like to believe, nor as dire as Camdenbob fears. In the mean time they are looking into Indonesia and China to keep busy while it is wet. Whether this is a good or a bad plan will depend on what (if any) projects they decide to take on, so let's not pre-judge their decisions there before they even make them.
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