Hey Surfrat, here's a loose attempt to try and see how the figures would stack up to reach the $1bln revenue.
We have been told that each treatment would sell for 50 pounds, currently this equals around AUD$76. I'll use the 12 week treatment scenario as per the recent trial, some may need less but it seems as though the more chronic ones will need a lot more than 12 weeks so maybe it is a good middle ground to work with.
All in AUD below:
12 treatments x $76 each = $912 per patient treated $912 x 500,000 patients = $456m revenue $912 x 1,000,000 patients = $912m revenue $912 x 2,000,000 patients = $1.824 billion revenue
Once traction is gained these prices don't seem too far out of reach, especially considering the amount of people needing treatment. Working out how much of the above would go to the TIS bottom line is another thing but let's say 15 - 25% could be well within reach.
This is a research report (below) outlining 27m ulcers requiring treatment, whether they are all able to afford treatment is another thing, but for ONLY chronic wounds this is a rather significant market. Remember that VitroGro will also enter the retail markets and more on top of the below.
Just some quick % grabs from this 27m figure shows:
Market penetration:
1. 5% of a 27m market would be 1.35m patients treated. 2. 10% of a 27m market would be 2.7m patients treated 3. 20% of a 27m market would be 5.4m patients treated 4. 30% of a 27m market would be 8.1m patients treated
ARTICLE:
Advanced Wound Care Management to 2016
The Global Advanced Wound Management Market is Forecast to Reach $3.7 billion in 2016
Online PR News ? 25-February-2011 ?The global advanced wound management market is forecast to reach $3.7 billion by 2016, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.5% during the period 2009-2016. The advanced wound management market is expected to be primarily driven by an increase in incidence of chronic wounds, a growing elderly population across the globe and greater adoption of technological advancements by surgeons and patients. In 2010, there are approximately 11 million venous ulcers, 11.3 million diabetic ulcers and 5.2 million pressure ulcers in the world requiring treatment, which will provide ample opportunities for advanced wound management products to penetrate into the market.
The growth is being driven by advancement in technology and products that are more clinically efficient and cost effective than their conventional counterparts. As technology advances, clinicians gain the ability to select dressings that simplify the selection process by providing multiple features and benefits. These products take less time to heal wounds when compared with low cost traditional wound care products, thereby reducing the hospital and healthcare professional?s bills, which account for a substantial portion of the total patient billing. According to the United Nations Population Division, people aged 60 and over are projected to account for 22% of the total world population by 2050, up from 11% in 2007, which will drive growth in the advanced wound management market. A new set of technologies and products are making an entry into the market with the aim of improving wound care management. Technological advancements, such as improvements in synthetic dressing materials and newer technologies, such as recombinant growth factors, endovascular arterial repair techniques, bi-layered human dermal substitutes and xenogeneic tissue scaffolds are expected to have a positive impact on the advanced wound management market.
GBI Research?s report, ?Advanced Wound Management to 2016 ? Increased Adoption of Advanced Wound Management for Chronic Wounds and Diabetes to Drive the Market? provides key data, information and analysis on the global advanced wound management market. The report provides market landscape, competitive landscape and market trends information on seven advanced wound management market categories ? Semi-permeable films, Foams, Hydrofibers, Hydrocolloids, Hydrogels, Alginates and Collagens. The report provides comprehensive information on the key trends affecting these categories, and key analytical content on the market dynamics. The report also reviews the competitive landscape and a detailed analysis of the pipeline products in each category. The report also reviews details about important merger and acquisition deals that have taken place in the advanced wound management market during the past three years. This report is built using data and information sourced from proprietary databases, primary and secondary research and in-house analysis by GBI Research?s team of industry experts.
