This is where you lost me -
"the facts so far...are discounts of less then 2% across the board....in house prices.....after rises in prior years of in excess of 25%
a net gain of 23%"
Kind of tweaking the averages in your favor there don't you think?
Even if those numbers were correct your maths is still wrong
Lets say the starting price is $100k
add 25% - $125K
Less 2% - $122.5K
A 22.5% increase. Not a big difference but its very basic maths that a professional investor such as yourself should understand.
When you open a comment with - " The FACTS so far" you should at least get your basic maths right (a critical factor when you are talking about large investments) even if you don't in put factual figures to start with.
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