interesting thread guys. you might want to slam skol etc down but I am interested in their views, as an important counterpoint. Oversimplications are unhelpful and having someone to argue with can mean you are forced to explain your assumptions and illustrate your thinking. this is not pointless. It is disappointing to realise that people who disagree with an opinion give thumbs down routinely, instead of respecting the opposing posters views, and commenting on the quality of their post.
jason: the US is strategically withdrawing from international conflict, and withdrawing from expensive bases. The US navy has withdrawn from the Indian ocean, creating a strategic void and invited India to fill it. The savings involved will not be inconsiderable. In terms of an end game, interdependency is the big lesson here. China is trying to stimulate domestic demand but the reality is it needs the EU and US markets in the near to medium term.
Commodities long term have to be a good thing, and it is possible that copper and other metals will be seen as an investment like gold and silver. Already it has been used as collateral for domestic loans in China. I cannot agree that gold mine stocks will continue to do badly. Some will rocket IMO.
All in all, situations are much more complex than we like to think. IMO.
The US has a massive productive capacity, along with an adaptability and inventiveness that nobody gets near except maybe Germany. With peak oil, the innovators will have technology to sell.
