This time around compared to pre-F bidding when the initial 'offer' was released had a different expectation. There is a distinct lack of volume so far and the initial volume spike was expected. I was hoping for special events hedge funds to step in and speculate on a higher offer but it just doesn't appear to be the case.
If I take a more balance view and look at the options of RIO, I would speculate that they are better off doing a JV with management in the event that CGNPC has less than 50% and if they(CGNPC) do indeed is successful will need the expertise of RIO. Itochu is also in the same boat with the Chinese in that they are also a consumer/trader of energy. This is a worry as they both have blocking stakes in both company.
White knight/potential competitor I am still expecting to be the Russians who are the other 'super power' energy hungry supplier/consumer of energy with no commercial diplomacy towards China inc. I have to blame the Japs with their irresponsible nuclear maintenance of their U energy industry with cover ups in the past that ultimately led to the ill prepared contingency for melt down events. Very disappointed and I am sure most here will feel that without F this is a totally different beast.
EXT Price at posting:
$8.50 Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
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