GWP :(Global Warming Potential) is used to contrast different greenhouse gases relative to CO2.
Total carbon dioxide (CO2) contributions are reduced to 72.37% of all greenhouse gases (368,400 / 509,056)-- (ignoring water vapor).
Anthropogenic (man-made) CO2 contributions drop to (11,880 / 509,056) or 2.33% of total of all greenhouse gases, (ignoring water vapor).
Total combined anthropogenic greenhouse gases becomes (28,162 / 509,056) or 5.53% of all greenhouse gas contributions, (ignoring water vapor).
Relative to carbon dioxide the other greenhouse gases together comprise about 27.63% of the greenhouse effect (ignoring water vapor) but only about 0.56% of total greenhouse gas concentrations. Put another way, as a group methane, nitrous oxide (N2O), and CFC's and other miscellaneous gases are about 50 times more potent than CO2 as greenhouse gases.
To properly represent the total relative impacts of Earth's greenhouse gases the Table(below) factors in the effect of water vapor on the system.
Role of Atmospheric Greenhouse Gases (man-made and natural) as a % of Relative Contribution to the "Greenhouse Effect
Based on concentrations (ppb) adjusted for heat retention characteristics
Percent of Total Percent of Total adjusted for water vapor
Total atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) both man-made and natural is only about 3.62% of the overall greenhouse effect a big difference from the 72.37% figure in the first Table which ignored water!
To finish with the maths, by calculating the product of the adjusted CO2 contribution to greenhouse gases (3.618%) and % of CO2 concentration from anthropogenic (man-made) sources (3.225%), we see that only (0.03618 X 0.03225) or 0.117% of the greenhouse effect is due to atmospheric CO2 from human activity. The other greenhouse gases are similarly calculated and are summarized below.
Anthropogenic (man-made) Contribution to the "Greenhouse Effect," expressed as % of Total (water vapor INCLUDED)
Based on concentrations (ppb) adjusted for heat retention characteristics
% of Greenhouse : % Natural : % Man-made
Water 95.000% 94.999% 0.001% vapor
(CO2) 3.618% 3.502% 0.117%
(CH4) 0.360% 0.294% 0.066%
(N2O) 0.950% 0.903% 0.047%
(CFC's etc) 0.072% 0.025% 0.047%
Total 100.000% 99.720% 0.280% Effect
Water vapor, responsible for 95% of Earth's greenhouse effect, is 99.999% natural (some argue, 100%). Even if we wanted to we can do nothing to change this.
Anthropogenic (man-made) CO2 contributions cause only about 0.117% of Earth's greenhouse effect, (factoring in water vapor). This is insignificant!
Adding up all anthropogenic greenhouse sources, the total human contribution to the greenhouse effect is around 0.28% (factoring in water vapor).
References:
Dr. S. Fred Singer, atmospheric physicist Professor Emeritus of Environmental Sciences at the University of Virginia, and former director of the US Weather Satellite Service; in a Sept. 10, 2001 Letter to Editor, Wall Street Journal
Scientists are increasingly recognizing the importance of water vapor in the climate system. Some, like Wallace Broecker, a geochemist at Columbia's Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, suggest that it is such an important factor that much of the global warming in the last 10,000 years may be due to the increasing water vapor concentrations in Earth's atmosphere.
His research indicates that air reaching glaciers during the last Ice Age had less than half the water vapor content of today. Such increases in atmospheric moisture during our current interglacial period would have played a far greater role in global warming than carbon dioxide or other minor gases.
" I can only see one element of the climate system capable of generating these fast, global changes, that is, changes in the tropical atmosphere leading to changes in the inventory of the earth's most powerful greenhouse gas-- water vapor. "
Dr. Wallace Broecker, a leading world authority on climate Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, lecture presented at R. A. Daly Lecture at the American Geophysical Union's spring meeting in Baltimore, Md., May 1996.
References:
Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (the primary global-change data and information analysis center of the U.S. Department of Energy) Oak Ridge, Tennessee
IEA Greenhouse Gas R&D Programme, Stoke Orchard, Cheltenham, Gloucestershire, GL52 7RZ, United Kingdom.
2) "Carbon cycle modelling and the residence time of natural and anthropogenic atmospheric CO2:on the construction of the 'Greenhouse Effect Global Warming' dogma;" Tom V. Segalstad, University of Oslo
3) Greenhouse Gases and Global Warming Potentials (updated April, 2002) Carbon Dioxide Information and Analysis Center (CDIAC), U.S. Department of Energy Oak Ridge, Tennessee.
4) Warming Potentials of Halocarbons and Greenhouses Gases Chemical formulae and global warming potentials from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Climate Change 1995: The Science of Climate Change (Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 1996), pp. 119 and 121. Production and sales of CFC's and other chemicals from International Trade Commission, Synthetic Organic Chemicals: United States Production and Sales, 1994 (Washington, DC, 1995). TRI emissions from U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 1994 Toxics Release Inventory: Public Data Release, EPA-745-R-94-001 (Washington, DC, June 1996), p. 73. Estimated 1994 U.S. emissions from U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks, 1990-1994, EPA-230-R-96-006 (Washington, DC, November 1995), pp. 37-40.
) References to 95% contribution of water vapor:
a. S.M. Freidenreich and V. Ramaswamy, “Solar Radiation Absorption by Carbon Dioxide, Overlap with Water, and a Parameterization for General Circulation Models,” Journal of Geophysical Research 98 (1993):7255-7264
b. Global Deception: The Exaggeration of the Global Warming Threat by Dr. Patrick J. Michaels, June 1998 Virginia State Climatologist and Professor of Environmental Sciences, University of Virginia
c. Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Appendix D, Greenhouse Gas Spectral Overlaps and Their Significance Energy Information Administration; Official Energy Statistics from the U.S. Government
d. Personal Communication-- Dr. Richard S. Lindzen Alfred P. Slone Professor of Meteorology, MIT
e. The Geologic Record and Climate Change by Dr. Tim Patterson, January 2005 Professor of Geology-- Carleton University Ottawa, Canada Alternate link: f. EPA Seeks To Have Water Vapor Classified As A Pollutant by the ecoEnquirer, 2006 Alternate link:
g. Does CO2 Really Drive Global Warming? by Dr. Robert Essenhigh, May 2001 Alternate link:
h. Solar Cycles, Not CO2, Determine Climate by Zbigniew Jaworowski, M.D., Ph.D., D.Sc., 21st Century Science and Technology, Winter 2003-2004, pp. 52-65 Link:
5) Global Climate Change Student Guide Department of Environmental and Geographical Sciences Manchester Metropolitan University Chester Street Manchester M1 5GD United Kingdom
6) Global Budgets for Atmospheric Nitrous Oxide - Anthropogenic Contributions William C. Trogler, Eric Bruner, Glenn Westwood, Barbara Sawrey, and Patrick Neill Department of Chemistry and Biochemistry University of California at San Diego, La Jolla, California
7) Methane record and budget Robert Grumbine
I HOLD NO FIXED OPINION AS YET BUT APPROACH THE TOPIC WITH AN OPEN MIND AND AM WILLING TO LISTEN TO ALL THE FACTS AND HYPOTHESIS PRIOR TO DRAWING A LINE IN THE SAND. ...EMPROR.
