Thanks for taking the time to do your estimates. I would make the following observations:
If I recall correctly ,the initial period for mining the "jewel box"is 4 years.
The native copper commands a higher price.
Some of the costs will deminish as other parties contribute to the rail and port costs.
The ore bodies of the likes of Fairfield can be exploited for their rich ores when the jewel box has been depleted so profits in later years can be maintained at higher levels which would not be possible if cdu was mining only the lower grades at 3 million tonne per annum.
As Max says, an upgrade of plant to 10 million tonne will maintain profits if only the lower grade ore is treated. There may even be a blend of higher grade/ lower grade. In other words,provided circumstances warrant, this is the path that will be taken.
If one compares the Jorc figure with that of the exhaustive metallurgical studies, there is a wide gulf. My belief lies with the metallugy and hence I think your figures will be found to be conservative.
The plant for Wilgar has been purchased,is being rewired and will I believe be a significant contributor in advance of Rocklands South and Las Minerale and it will also be a low cost open cut.
With so many variables, yours has been a difficult task. What it does show CDU has a bright future.
CDU Price at posting:
$3.70 Sentiment: LT Buy Disclosure: Held
