Here are the list of anouncements I think we should be expecting for Jan - March 2012
ATL1103
1. Dr.Cohen of UCLA pituitary tumor program should advise that based on Phase 1 trial results, whether ATL1103 will be worth pursuing for the Pituitary Tumor and if this will open up the a separate line of reserach for ATL1103. A positive announcement fro cancer would be a boost to the SP of ANP.
2. Based on TEVA's previous licensing agreement for ATL1102 for MS, it would be anticipate that the Pharma who is in DD on ATL1103 could make an offer to continue the trials from Phase2 onwards. Ideally, this is for a different line of research such as for the Pituitary Cancer trials. Leaving the original Acromegaly line of research to ANP through private funding.
3. Annoucements on the details of ATL1103 Phase 2 human trials : funding arrangements, timeline etc. Once the details of Phase 2 trials is finalised, we should expect a funding arrangements probably thru SI, a joint annoucement with ISIS in the US for the initiation of Phase 2a human trial, presentation to ISIS US investors, Phase 2a plan approval, recruitment drive and the 12 weeks trial for Phase 2a and a longer term Phase 2b.
ATL1101
1. Annoucement on the financing deal from Afandin P/L The fact that Afandin requested an extension instead of terminating the arrangement indicating that they may be close to getting a financing deal for ATL1101 for prostate cancer trials. As the deal involves establishing a separate company to be formed between Afandin and ANP, the timeline suggest that the actual financing deal should be finalised at least 2 months before the May 2012 deadline.
ATL1102 for MS
1. With the news that MS human cells can be generated for research purposes, the time issue of retrialing the toxicology of ATL1102 that had prompted TEVA to give up ATL1102 for MS may be solved and the deal could be revised. It was a lengthy recruitment for MS patients in the previous toxicology trials. If the MS cells are generated on a dish and can be used for the toxicology trials, there will be no need for the MS patient recruitment. (note:I am just speculating here as I have no inside knowledge of the technology involved.)
ATL1102 for stem cell mobilisation
1. An anouncement that a licensing or partnership deal for the development and commercialisation of ATL1102 for stem cell mobilisation could be on the card. Using ATL1102 for stem cells mobilisation: The current stem cell mobilisation agent Mozobil had sales of about $100m in 2010 and a peak sales estimated to be $350m/annum. If ATL1102 can be developed and commercialised, the value of licensing and royalties would possibly be $60-70m per annum. (ISIS should get 1/3 of the total as ATL1102 is licensed from ISIS)
I hope that we will have all the good news in the first 3 months, laying the foundation for all the trials to begin as early as possible and hopefully completed in 2012. The combined effect of all three compounds on the SP of ANP cannot be underestimated.
JIMO
DYOR
ANP Price at posting:
23.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
