something to think about.

As a discussion point a while back, I floated the idea of PRR acquiring an interest in a company involved in the development and commercialization of diagnostic tests for ovarian and prostate cancer. At the time though, I agreed with consensus that it was an unlikely scenario. (HC# 7179912)

Since then, the continuing drift in PRR's SP, plus a recent speech by the Roche CEO, have me revisiting the idea.

In my view, given positive Cvac trial results, long term value for PRR shareholders could come in one of several ways. My preference would be for PRR to achieve stand alone commercialization, (similar to but hopefully better than DNDN). But realistically the more likely scenarios are a marketing/licensing agreement, or regrettably, takeover by a major. I've read that in recent times, big pharma have been snapping up companies with prospective drugs/therapies, in some cases before phase III. Some say the number of blockbuster drugs with expiring patents is the major driver for this trend.

So why do I still see benefit in PRR diversifying into diagnostics?

Prior to Xmas, Roche CEO Severin Schwan said the Swiss drug maker was ready to seize the right opportunities for acquisitions.

In particular this quote drew my attention: "The world's biggest cancer drug maker wants DEALS TO FIT ITS FOCUS ON MEDICINES SOLD ALONGSIDE DIAGNOSTIC TOOLS THAT SHOW WHICH PATIENTS WILL BENEFIT FROM THE DRUGS, Schwan said. Roche will continue to seek products and technologies ranging in price from 100 million Swiss francs to 300 million francs as well as being open to a larger purchase ....."

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-12-22/roche-ceo-is-open-to-3-billion-takeover-would-seize-right-opportunity.html

So my point is that by acquiring a material interest in diagnostics over any of the Cvac related mucin expressing cancers, PRR would become a more complete and valuable entity. Even allowing for a reasonable acquisition premium, I suspect that the market cap of PRR might ultimately benefit by more than the initial cost.

It's not that I want PRR set up for takeover though!

Rather I believe it would help to create a more positive impression of PRR in the marketplace and hopefully reflect in an increased SP.

If the Cvac IIb trial results are positive, at its current SP, PRR would be a sitting duck imo. So anything that can increase shareholder value above current levels is welcome.

I continue to think that diagnostics technology is worthy of interest from PRR management.

One man's opinion. Something to think about.

Happy New Year everyone.