massively undervalued african coalers, page-9

Nice to see AFR HDG AVA CCC all up - giving weight to the peer comparison argument.

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Just for a laugh - messed with "EV/Resource tonne" figures in DJC note - just in case NMR find some more coal.

Compared them the AFR only

Number of NMR shares changed to suit future dilution better (to be a bit fair at least). Assuming AFR not increasing tonnage.

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ORIGINAL COMPARISON - DJC


From original December 15 2011 DJC Report - with AFR 30.6 cents, NMR 3.8 cents


RESOURCE
TONNES MCAP(mil$) CASH(mil$) EV(mil$) EV/Tonne

AFR 2,730 107.8 10.6 97.2 0.0356

NMR 4,230 16.1 1.9 14.2 0.003357

Ratio AFR 10.6047 : NMR 1 (very cheap coal at a tenth?)

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RECENT COMPARISON - WHAT WE SAW

From December 31 2011 - with AFR 25.5 cents, NMR 5.0 cents - and cash trimmed a bit in both.

RESOURCE
TONNES MCAP(mil$) CASH(mil$) EV(mil$) EV/Tonne

AFR 2,730 84.551 10.4 74.151 0.0356

NMR 4,230 22.801 1.8 21.001 0.004964775

Ratio AFR 5.4705 : NMR 1 (still cheap at near a sixth??)

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FUTURE COMPARISON - GIVEN THAT COAL FOUND AT DEPTH

Now being hopeful....! (given a better market and AFR climbing back into favour a little (around 30 cents) - NMR looking like inferred resource of 7 billion tonnes)

On XXX***??? 2012 - AFR 30.6 cents again , NMR 5.0387 cents - cash trimmed a bit again.

AFR shares the same - NMR increased to 500 million shares via dilution - just to be safer (up from 423 million).


RESOURCE
TONNES MCAP(mil$) CASH(mil$) EV(mil$) EV/Tonne

AFR 2,730 107.8 10.2 97.6 0.03575

NMR 7,000 25.00 1.5 23.5 0.003357142

Ratio AFR 11.1702 : NMR 1 (very cheap at one eleventh?)

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FUTURE COMPARISON - GOOD FINDS - STILL NOT INCLUDING FAR WEST LAND - Just hopeful on Phase 1 and 2.

Now being even more hopeful....! 8.5 billion tonnes

On XXX***???? 2012 - AFR 30.6 cents still , NMR 5.0387 cents - cash trimmed a bit again.

AFR shares the same - NMR left at 500 million shares via dilution (up from 423 million). Hopefully some oppies in the money to pay for some drilling.


RESOURCE
TONNES MCAP(mil$) CASH(mil$) EV(mil$) EV/Tonne

AFR 2,730 107.8 10.2 97.6 0.03575

NMR 8,500 25.00 1.5 23.5 0.002764705

Ratio AFR 12.93086 : NMR 1 (very cheap at one thirteenth)

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Things/factors to consider (as this is back of envelope stuff) at very least...

1) Upcoming Performance shares from Walkabout deal - which might not dilute too much (given firming SP)

2) % ownership of land holdings on both sides of the fence AFR vs NMR (eg NMR 65 and 70% farm-in)

3) Coal sentiment

4) One million factors.....

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Let me know if my maths is out.

All the best.

bsh