xjo survival guide to 2012 wednesday, page-89

El Capo, you wrote,

"To be expected really since there has been a massive bull market for the last 20 years. Doh!

Completely useless information."

In response to the post of CEBonomics,

"Over the past 20 years the DJIA’s full-year performance followed the direction of the 1st trading day of the year 17 times (85% of the time)"


I agree with you that it is completely useless information. A couple of hundred trading days a year, surely the performance (only a gain or a loss in this case, not size of gain or loss) of at least one of these days will be correlated with the full year performance. Funnily enough it appears that the first day is correlated.

You have stated that this correlation is a result of "a massive bull market for the last 20 years". I am under the view that this correlation is pure luck, a 'spurious correlation' if you like.

Your reasoning/view seems rather foolish and completely incorrect. Can you please discuss/explain to the HC readers how you came to your conclusion.

Thanks
Akkopower