I have strong suspicions that the "conspiracy theory" is pretty close to spot on....
My only additions would be that
(a) not only do they both profit from the shorting and the share lending, but they also get to end up with net accumulation at lower prices for the next run upwards, and:
(b) your excellent detective work and correlation should be submitted to ASIC, and also to one of the investigative journalists at the AFR. There has been one on LYC's case ever since the Crown Affair - Luke Forrestal.
I don't see too many holes in your reasoning....
Good work - but hard evidence would be hard to find, and is really what is needed, to prove share price manipulation.
LYC Price at posting:
$1.04 Sentiment: LT Buy Disclosure: Held
A personalised tool to help users track selected stocks. Delivering real-time notifications on price updates, announcements, and performance stats on each to help make informed investment decisions.
(20min delay)