tough times for renewables in 2012

A new report by analysts Maxim

http://www.electroiq.com/articles/pvw/2012/01/a-region-by-region-take-on-pv-installations-2011-2012-and-beyond.html

predicts that 2011 PV installs in Australia of 700MW will drop to 425MW in 2012 and only recover to current levels in 2013.

In this context solar power is pretty much a proxy for all deployment stage renewables (mainly wind). Development stage renewables (wave CWE, hot rocks GDY, energy storage CBD) will be hit even harder.

However, on the brighter side, I reckon the analysis has misread the Australian political economy.
- Fight for Prime Minister position coming to a head,
potential election at any month,
- establishment of Clean Energy Fund with $3Bn to spend now, $10Bn more in two years,
- COAG & IPART coming to a determination on 'fair' nationwide renewables feed in tariff (for political reasons),
- retail electricity prices passing PV residential cost in 2011
- increasing pressure to recognise and reduce effective thermal power station subsidies (free potable quality water to NSW and VIC coal power stations when both states are building major urban water supply desalination plants at $2/kL delivered - get real)
- PV panel prices well below 90c/Wp now and still dropping

I would think that the Australian renewables market will continue to at least hold 2011 installation rates in 2012. The dark side is that margins will be zip/nada/zero and survival is the game, not profit.