"baltic baloney" jan 19th http://www.fnarena.com/index2.cfm?type=dsp_newsitem&n=F36A30E1-B973-67FD-678D3C9C617B4DDA
sorry could not copy but it expresses a growing opinion that the BDI is no longer the predictor it once was due to the introduction of the (19) "valemax" 400,000 tonne carriers that are all owned/chartered by Vale of Brazil. This introduction has had two effects. The daily $ rates for these 'producer owned' vessels is unknown. and their introduction has caused a supply side glut of available tonnage. Since end of 2009 the BDI has diverged from commodity prices and has become an unreliable indicator.
great graph of BDI and A$ (showing the divergence) in the article.
