jako's - top pickers nightmare - friday, page-3

It’s a cruel, cruel game. I just knew it was “too perfect” this week for the SPX to stop right on the downtrend line from last year’s high. So what does it do - pop through to drag in the last of the non-believers and then turn down. Market always likes to have a little twist in the tail to test everyone’s mettle. But ah! Such joy. Right into my target box of 1325 to 1350 although it took longer than I had anticipated.

So what now – It may be a MAJOR turning point but at this stage I will give the market the benefit of the doubt and go for only a short term correction. Perhaps only back to around 1300 but I think I would rather see it back around 1270 to 1275. It might even try and confuse us a bit more in this area before turning down.

My Genius Index touched 56% this week – the highest since the October level of -3.5%. Major tops are usually much higher than that. These figures, looked at on their own, suggest that this is only a short to medium term top rather than a major reversal although I do admit that some charts do point to a very serious reversal. Just have to play a fairly cautious game till we see a bit more evidence.

I also think we probably need to focus quite a bit of attention on the US Dollar as we may get a lead on the stock market from this direction. Needs a rally here but if it is just forming a little top pattern, then it would be good for equities.

Martis – you gave me such a hard time about that target – what have you got to say now that it has been reached? Probably just the same old, same old....

Life never gets boring in the stock market does it...